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> Statistical Inconsistencies and Paradoxes, BAD LOGIC, BEWARE
Seth-Rah
post Oct 15 2008, 11:47 PM
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Statistics say that 45% of fatal accidents are caused by drunk driving. Therefore, you should drive while drunk as you have a lower chance of getting into a fatal accident.



Assume an unborn baby has a 50% chance of becoming either a boy or a girl. You ask a male passersby if he has any siblings, and he says he has one sibling. What are the chances of his sibling being a male?
HINT: It is NOT 1/2.
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A baseball stat paradox:

Suppose Mister Joe and Mister Bob are batters. Mister Joe has a record of 10 hits out of 50 pitches against left-handed pitchers and 177 hits out of 581 pitches against right-handed pitchers. On the other hand, Mister Bob has a record of hitting 105 pitches out of 410 against left-handed pitches and 45 pitches out of 140 against right-handed pitchers.

Okay. Let's do a little bit of math here.

For Joe:
LHP | 10/50 = .2000 or 20.00%
RHP | 177/581 = 30.46%
TOTAL | 187/631 = 29.63%

For Bob:
LHP | 105/410 = 25.60%
RHP | 45/140 = 32.14%
TOTAL | 150/550 = 27.27%

As we can see here, Mister Bob's hit percentage against left-handed pitches are higher than Joe's as well as his hit percentage against right-handed pitches compared to Joe's. However, when tallied up, as noted in TOTAL, Bob's hit percentage is LOWER than Joe's. These numbers do not lie. This is a paradox.
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Teeky
post Oct 16 2008, 01:44 AM
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QUOTE
Statistics say that 45% of fatal accidents are caused by drunk driving. Therefore, you should drive while drunk as you have a lower chance of getting into a fatal accident.


The statistic applies to the total of Fatal Accidents, not the likeliness of getting into an accident while driving/drunk.

QUOTE
As we can see here, Mister Bob's hit percentage against left-handed pitches are higher than Joe's as well as his hit percentage against right-handed pitches compared to Joe's. However, when tallied up, as noted in TOTAL, Bob's hit percentage is LOWER than Joe's. These numbers do not lie. This is a paradox.


Your totals aren't the same, of course the percentages are gonna be messed up.
QUOTE
Assume an unborn baby has a 50% chance of becoming either a boy or a girl. You ask a male passersby if he has any siblings, and he says he has one sibling. What are the chances of his sibling being a male?
HINT: It is NOT 1/2.

The chances are 1/4.
A coin has no memory, etc.

Just because he was born male does not mean his sibling will be female to fit in with the laws of probability. It is STILL 50/50 because each situation completely self contained and individual.








Those were pretty easy to figure out.

This post has been edited by Irysa: Oct 16 2008, 01:45 AM


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Antartique
post Oct 17 2008, 04:45 PM
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The percentage thing is because Bob's LHP, while higher, drags the RHP down more than the other guy's.
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Kinsoku
post Oct 17 2008, 08:04 PM
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Bob and Joe are probably not on the same baseball team b/c one gets many LHPs and the other many RHPs.

As for the coin flip problem, do you the OP have any data that shows this?

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
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Mighty Griffon
post Oct 19 2008, 04:02 AM
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What the heck does the... never mind
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Sotel Kiseki
post Oct 21 2008, 10:30 PM
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QUOTE(jcdietz03 @ Oct 17 2008, 01:04 PM) *
do you the OP
Learn who people are.


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