 Statistical Inconsistencies and Paradoxes, BAD LOGIC, BEWARE |
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| Calvat |
 Oct 15 2008, 11:47 PM
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#1
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Lazy Group: Arcs Posts: 16 Joined: 20-April 06 Member No.: 114  |
Statistics say that 45% of fatal accidents are caused by drunk driving. Therefore, you should drive while drunk as you have a lower chance of getting into a fatal accident.
Assume an unborn baby has a 50% chance of becoming either a boy or a girl. You ask a male passersby if he has any siblings, and he says he has one sibling. What are the chances of his sibling being a male? HINT: It is NOT 1/2. » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « A baseball stat paradox: Suppose Mister Joe and Mister Bob are batters. Mister Joe has a record of 10 hits out of 50 pitches against left-handed pitchers and 177 hits out of 581 pitches against right-handed pitchers. On the other hand, Mister Bob has a record of hitting 105 pitches out of 410 against left-handed pitches and 45 pitches out of 140 against right-handed pitchers. Okay. Let's do a little bit of math here. For Joe: LHP | 10/50 = .2000 or 20.00% RHP | 177/581 = 30.46% TOTAL | 187/631 = 29.63% For Bob: LHP | 105/410 = 25.60% RHP | 45/140 = 32.14% TOTAL | 150/550 = 27.27% As we can see here, Mister Bob's hit percentage against left-handed pitches are higher than Joe's as well as his hit percentage against right-handed pitches compared to Joe's. However, when tallied up, as noted in TOTAL, Bob's hit percentage is LOWER than Joe's. These numbers do not lie. This is a paradox. ~~~
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Replies(1 - 5)
| Ebe |
Oct 16 2008, 01:44 AM
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#2
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Casual Chatter  Group: Arcs Posts: 89 Joined: 1-November 06 Member No.: 262 |
QUOTE Statistics say that 45% of fatal accidents are caused by drunk driving. Therefore, you should drive while drunk as you have a lower chance of getting into a fatal accident. The statistic applies to the total of Fatal Accidents, not the likeliness of getting into an accident while driving/drunk. QUOTE As we can see here, Mister Bob's hit percentage against left-handed pitches are higher than Joe's as well as his hit percentage against right-handed pitches compared to Joe's. However, when tallied up, as noted in TOTAL, Bob's hit percentage is LOWER than Joe's. These numbers do not lie. This is a paradox. Your totals aren't the same, of course the percentages are gonna be messed up. QUOTE Assume an unborn baby has a 50% chance of becoming either a boy or a girl. You ask a male passersby if he has any siblings, and he says he has one sibling. What are the chances of his sibling being a male? A coin has no memory, etc. HINT: It is NOT 1/2. The chances are 1/4. Just because he was born male does not mean his sibling will be female to fit in with the laws of probability. It is STILL 50/50 because each situation completely self contained and individual. Those were pretty easy to figure out. This post has been edited by Irysa: Oct 16 2008, 01:45 AM |
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| Teeky |
Oct 17 2008, 04:45 PM
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#3
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Lazy Group: Arcs Posts: 9 Joined: 14-December 07 From: Somewhere you don't care about. >_>! Member No.: 1669 |
The percentage thing is because Bob's LHP, while higher, drags the RHP down more than the other guy's.
~~~ *Too lazy to have a signature* @__@
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| mattiator |
Oct 17 2008, 08:04 PM
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#4
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 Talkative Group: Arcs Posts: 109 Joined: 20-March 07 From: Still trying to skip that stupid rock. Member No.: 843 |
Bob and Joe are probably not on the same baseball team b/c one gets many LHPs and the other many RHPs.
As for the coin flip problem, do you the OP have any data that shows this? Lies, damn lies, and statistics. ~~~ "People who quote themselves have low self-esteem"
- Mattiator |
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| Hayate |
Oct 19 2008, 04:02 AM
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#5
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 Nerd nerd nerd Group: Flunkies Posts: 340 Joined: 14-February 08 From: The Battleground Member No.: 1697 |
What the heck does the... never mind
~~~ Two wrongs don't make a right, but three rights make a left.
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| untouch |
Oct 21 2008, 10:30 PM
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#6
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 Lazy Group: Arcs Posts: 24 Joined: 27-December 05 Member No.: 23 |
QUOTE(jcdietz03 @ Oct 17 2008, 01:04 PM)  do you the OP Learn who people are.~~~  Things change, things really change |
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