Statistical Inconsistencies and Paradoxes, BAD LOGIC, BEWARE Options

[chrishawke]

Statistics say that 45% of fatal accidents are caused by drunk driving. Therefore, you should drive while drunk as you have a lower chance of getting into a fatal accident.



Assume an unborn baby has a 50% chance of becoming either a boy or a girl. You ask a male passersby if he has any siblings, and he says he has one sibling. What are the chances of his sibling being a male?
HINT: It is NOT 1/2.

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The chances are 1/4.

A baseball stat paradox:

Suppose Mister Joe and Mister Bob are batters. Mister Joe has a record of 10 hits out of 50 pitches against left-handed pitchers and 177 hits out of 581 pitches against right-handed pitchers. On the other hand, Mister Bob has a record of hitting 105 pitches out of 410 against left-handed pitches and 45 pitches out of 140 against right-handed pitchers.

Okay. Let's do a little bit of math here.

For Joe:
LHP | 10/50 = .2000 or 20.00%
RHP | 177/581 = 30.46%
TOTAL | 187/631 = 29.63%

For Bob:
LHP | 105/410 = 25.60%
RHP | 45/140 = 32.14%
TOTAL | 150/550 = 27.27%

As we can see here, Mister Bob's hit percentage against left-handed pitches are higher than Joe's as well as his hit percentage against right-handed pitches compared to Joe's. However, when tallied up, as noted in TOTAL, Bob's hit percentage is LOWER than Joe's. These numbers do not lie. This is a paradox.

[Irysa]

Statistics say that 45% of fatal accidents are caused by drunk driving. Therefore, you should drive while drunk as you have a lower chance of getting into a fatal accident.

The statistic applies to the total of Fatal Accidents, not the likeliness of getting into an accident while driving/drunk.

As we can see here, Mister Bob's hit percentage against left-handed pitches are higher than Joe's as well as his hit percentage against right-handed pitches compared to Joe's. However, when tallied up, as noted in TOTAL, Bob's hit percentage is LOWER than Joe's. These numbers do not lie. This is a paradox.

Your totals aren't the same, of course the percentages are gonna be messed up.

Assume an unborn baby has a 50% chance of becoming either a boy or a girl. You ask a male passersby if he has any siblings, and he says he has one sibling. What are the chances of his sibling being a male?
HINT: It is NOT 1/2.

The chances are 1/4.

A coin has no memory, etc.

Just because he was born male does not mean his sibling will be female to fit in with the laws of probability. It is STILL 50/50 because each situation completely self contained and individual.








Those were pretty easy to figure out.

This post has been edited by Irysa: Oct 16 2008, 01:45 AM

[Raijinili]

The percentage thing is because Bob's LHP, while higher, drags the RHP down more than the other guy's.

[jcdietz03]

Bob and Joe are probably not on the same baseball team b/c one gets many LHPs and the other many RHPs.

As for the coin flip problem, do you the OP have any data that shows this?

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

[Raijinili]

What the heck does the... never mind

[Enzd]

do you the OP

Learn who people are.